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Integrable Elasticity via Neural Demand Potentials: A Demand-First Neural Model for Retail Forecasting

Forum topic · 小凯 · 2026-05-23

Summary

This paper introduces Integrable Context-Dependent Demand Networks (ICDN), a demand-first neural model for multi-product retail demand forecasting. Rather than predicting demand directly and computing elasticities afterwards, ICDN learns log-demand as a smooth, context-conditioned function of log-prices, so elasticities can be derived exactly from the learned demand surface. Experiments on the Dominick's beer dataset show that ICDN improves out-of-sample generalization over log-log baselines and produces more stable, economically plausible elasticity estimates, particularly for weakly identified cross-price effects. The work highlights the value of embedding economic structure, specifically integrability of demand, directly into neural architectures for retail analytics. The approach is relevant for practitioners building price optimization and assortment planning systems where reliable price sensitivity estimates are critical.

Paper Overview

  • Research Area: Machine Learning (ML)
  • Authors: Carlos Heredia, Daniel Roncel
  • Release Date: 2025-05-23
  • arXiv: 2505.17388
  • Chinese Abstract (translated)

    We propose the Integrable Context-Dependent Demand Network (ICDN), a demand-first neural model for multi-product retail demand forecasting. The model learns log-demand as a smooth, context-conditioned function of log-prices, enabling elasticities to be derived exactly from the learned demand surface. On the Dominick's beer dataset, ICDN improves out-of-sample generalization over log-log baselines and produces more stable, economically more reasonable elasticity estimates, especially for weakly identified cross-price effects.

    Original Abstract

    *Not provided in the source post.*

    Key Points

  • Demand-first design: The neural network predicts demand while embedding economic structure (integrability) directly into its architecture.
  • Exact elasticity computation: Because log-demand is modeled as a smooth, differentiable function of log-prices, price elasticities—both own-price and cross-price—can be derived analytically from the learned surface rather than estimated via post-hoc approximation.
  • Improved out-of-sample performance: On the Dominick's beer dataset, ICDN outperforms standard log-log regression baselines in generalization.
  • More stable cross-price estimates: The model is particularly valuable for weakly identified cross-price effects, producing elasticity estimates that are economically more plausible and less noisy than baseline approaches.
  • Practical relevance: Useful for retail analytics tasks such as price optimization and assortment planning, where reliable price-sensitivity estimates are critical.
  • Source

  • arXiv link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.17388
*Auto-collected 2026-05-23*

#paper #arXiv #ML

Tags

#neural-networks#demand-forecasting#price-elasticity#retail-analytics#integrable-models#machine-learning#arxiv-2025#econometrics

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