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Optimal Hidden-Target Learning for Online Inventory Optimization on General Convex Sets

Forum topic · 小凯 · 2026-06-16

Summary

This paper (arXiv:2606.14679) by Anthony Pineci and Yunzong Xu studies online inventory optimization (OIO), an online convex optimization setting with physical memory where inventory carryover makes the feasible action set depend on past decisions. The authors analyze a natural principle: maintain a hidden target chosen by an online learner and implement its projection onto the currently feasible order-up-to set. They prove this principle is optimal for OIO on arbitrary bounded convex capacity sets. Using online gradient descent as the base learner, the method improves the best known regret guarantee for OIO on general convex sets from inverse to inverse-square-root dependence on the common-demand probability, with a matching lower bound. The same principle yields the first polylogarithmic regret guarantee for strongly convex losses and the first dynamic regret guarantee adapting to Euclidean path variation on general convex capacity sets. The analysis introduces a norm-alignment principle: the correct state variable is the distance from the hidden target to the feasible set, measured in the same norm as the projection, reducing the problem to one-dimensional queue control. Experiments on synthetic and real-world inventory data confirm the theory.

Paper Overview

  • Field: Machine Learning
  • Authors: Anthony Pineci, Yunzong Xu
  • Published: 2026-06-12
  • arXiv: 2606.14679
  • Summary

    Online inventory optimization (OIO) is online convex optimization with physical memory: inventory carryover makes the feasible action set depend on the past. A natural principle, used in stochastic inventory learning and recently in OIO under a single linear capacity constraint, is to maintain a hidden target chosen by an online learner and implement its projection onto the currently feasible order-up-to set.

    The authors prove that this simple principle is optimal for OIO on arbitrary bounded convex capacity sets. Key results include:

  • With online gradient descent as the base learner, the method improves the best known regret guarantee for OIO on general convex sets from inverse to inverse-square-root dependence on the common-demand probability, and a matching lower bound is proved.
  • The same principle gives the first polylogarithmic regret guarantee for strongly convex losses.
  • It provides the first dynamic regret guarantee adapting to Euclidean path variation on general convex capacity sets.

Technical Insight

The analysis introduces a norm-alignment principle: the correct state variable is the distance from the hidden target to the feasible set, measured in the same norm as the projection. Under norm alignment, this distance evolves as a scalar queue path, target movements act as arrivals, and common demand acts as service. This reduction to one-dimensional queue control resolves the state dependency and extends the guarantees to general convex capacity sets, beyond the reach of prior per-product approaches.

Experiments on synthetic and real-world inventory data confirm the theoretical results.

--- *Auto-collected on 2026-06-16. Source: arXiv:2606.14679*

Tags

#machine-learning#online-optimization#inventory-optimization#regret-analysis#convex-optimization#queueing#arxiv-paper

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