A-Share Chip Fund Weekly Report: Early July 2026 Price Action and Capital Flows

Forum topic · 小凯 · 2026-07-13

Summary

This report analyzes the performance of China A-share semiconductor/chip ETFs from July 6 to July 10, 2026, focusing on the Huaxia CSI Semiconductor Chip ETF (512760.SH) and Guolian An Semiconductor ETF (159995.SZ). After three quiet days, both funds surged nearly 10% on Thursday (July 9) before gapping up and reversing sharply on Friday (July 10), leaving a bearish 'shooting star' candlestick with a long upper shadow. Fund-flow data shows institutional money (super-large and large orders) accumulated quietly on Wednesday, drove the Thursday rally—SMIC (688981.SH) saw 3.05 billion yuan in main-force inflow—then exited aggressively on Friday, while retail investors bought the top. The catalyst was the upcoming IPO subscription of DRAM leader ChangXin Technology (CXMT) on July 16, which aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan and forecast H1 2026 revenue growth above 600%. The report suggests defensive positioning early in the week, watching the 1.40-1.41 yuan support for 512760.SH, and staged accumulation of semiconductor equipment ETFs later in the week around the IPO subscription date.

A-Share Chip Fund Weekly Report: Early July 2026 (July 6–10)

This report reviews the price action and capital flows of A-share semiconductor/chip ETFs during the week of July 6–10, 2026, using OHLCV data and fund-flow analytics.

Weekly Price Recap: Rally and Reversal

The week was quiet for three days, exploded on Thursday, and reversed sharply on Friday. Key OHLCV data:

| Fund | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume (lots) | | :--- | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | 512760.SH Huaxia Semiconductor Chip ETF | 07-06 | 1.431 | 1.437 | 1.348 | 1.412 | -0.42% | 6,220,173 | | | 07-07 | 1.381 | 1.441 | 1.370 | 1.406 | -0.42% | 4,593,499 | | | 07-08 | 1.415 | 1.463 | 1.360 | 1.412 | +0.43% | 6,185,298 | | | 07-09 | 1.434 | 1.552 | 1.420 | 1.550 | +9.77% | 8,525,589 | | | 07-10 | 1.560 | 1.589 | 1.445 | 1.448 | -6.58% | 7,987,027 | | 159995.SZ Guolian An Semiconductor ETF | 07-06 | 1.530 | 1.534 | 1.439 | 1.505 | -0.27% | 5,424,147 | | | 07-07 | 1.474 | 1.530 | 1.464 | 1.501 | -0.27% | 9,169,973 | | | 07-08 | 1.504 | 1.550 | 1.446 | 1.493 | -0.53% | 9,082,515 | | | 07-09 | 1.518 | 1.642 | 1.501 | 1.642 | +9.98% | 12,209,432 | | | 07-10 | 1.662 | 1.685 | 1.528 | 1.534 | -6.58% | 11,895,302 |

Friday's candles formed a shooting-star / lightning-rod pattern: a high open, a strong intraday push, then heavy selling pressure into the close, leaving a long upper shadow — often a sign of a short-term top.

Capital Flow Analysis: Institutions Exit, Retail Buys the Top

Fund-flow data (main force = super-large + large order net flow, unit: 10,000 yuan):

| Ticker | Date | Main | Super-Large | Large | Medium | Small (Retail) | | :--- | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | 512760.SH | 07-08 | +2,686 | +6,530 | -3,844 | -2,089 | -597 | | | 07-09 | +25,437 | +27,907 | -2,469 | -14,956 | -10,482 | | | 07-10 | -19,775 | -628 | -19,148 | +5,174 | +14,601 | | 159995.SZ | 07-08 | +2,341 | +12,734 | -10,393 | -4,045 | +1,705 | | | 07-09 | +34,627 | +26,763 | +7,864 | -15,164 | -19,463 | | | 07-10 | -51,119 | -54,840 | +3,721 | +18,221 | +32,898 | | 688981.SH SMIC | 07-08 | +108,538 | +132,079 | -23,541 | -50,923 | -57,615 | | | 07-09 | +305,457 | +192,229 | +113,228 | -173,055 | -132,401 | | | 07-10 | -131,902 | -188,350 | +56,447 | +59,326 | +72,577 | | 002371.SZ NAURA | 07-08 | -60,649 | -6,186 | -54,463 | +60,711 | -62 | | | 07-09 | +164,826 | +87,384 | +77,441 | -164,749 | -76 | | | 07-10 | -46,987 | -48,580 | +1,593 | +47,053 | -66 |

Key observations

1. Wednesday (07-08): quiet accumulation. Super-large orders bought while the sector consolidated — e.g., SMIC saw 1.32 billion yuan in super-large inflows. 2. Thursday (07-09): coordinated rally. Main-force money drove the surge: SMIC +3.05 billion yuan, Guolian An ETF +346 million yuan, while retail sold into strength. 3. Friday (07-10): institutional exit, retail trapped. Main force dumped heavily — Guolian An ETF -511 million yuan (super-large -548 million), SMIC -1.32 billion — while retail net-bought 146 million yuan into 512760.SH and 329 million yuan into 159995.SZ at elevated prices. Chips have redistributed from institutions to retail.

Macro Fundamentals: CXMT IPO and Strong Earnings

1. Major IPO ahead: ChangXin Technology (CXMT), China's domestic DRAM leader, opens its subscription on Thursday, July 16 — 2026's largest A-share IPO, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan. 2. Earnings surge validates domestic substitution: CXMT forecasts H1 2026 revenue of 110–120 billion yuan (up over 600% YoY) and net profit of 50–57 billion yuan (up over 2,200% YoY), boosting confidence across memory and equipment supply chains. 3. High crowding vs. high expectations: Thursday's IPO-driven euphoria triggered Friday's profit-taking, suggesting the market views the theme as temporarily overpriced.

> DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) is the main working memory in computers, phones, and servers, and a core component for AI compute infrastructure. CXMT is the domestic leader in this field.

Trading Plan for Next Week

Short-term (Mon–Wed): defense, don't chase

Heavy overhead supply from Friday's trapped retail buyers plus determined institutional outflows point to consolidation and washing-out in the first three sessions.
Treat intraday rebounds on Monday/Tuesday as reduction opportunities, not entries.
Watch the 1.40–1.41 yuan support zone on 512760.SH (Wednesday's launch platform); only consider buying there if it holds.

Medium-term (Thu–Fri): staged accumulation on dips

CXMT's 29.5 billion yuan raise will drive procurement of upstream etching, deposition, and cleaning equipment — the strongest domestic-substitution logic (NAURA, AMEC, etc.).
If washing-out completes (declines narrowing as the subscription date nears), consider staged buys of the STAR Chip ETF (588200.SH) or semiconductor equipment ETFs at key supports.
If super-large orders turn to net inflows on Wednesday or Thursday, a new pulse rally around the "CXMT theme" is possible.