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Cited but Not Consulted: A Counterfactual Audit of Legal Chain-of-Thought in LLMs

Forum topic · 小凯 · 2026-10-12

Summary

A new arXiv paper (2610.12361) tests whether LLM citations of legal authorities reflect genuine reliance. Researchers fixed case facts, substituted the cited legal authority with an unrelated one, and decoded evolving verdicts from model hidden states. Across seven open-weight models (8B-70B) and four benchmarks covering judicial and contractual reasoning, models correctly named the governing authority in 66.7%-100% of generations, but verdicts changed upon authority substitution far less consistently: 0.0%-21.7% on CaseHOLD, 30.0%-76.7% on ECHR and SCOTUS, and 43.3%-50.0% on ContractNLI. Neither scale nor fine-tuned legal-reasoning models closed the gap. Red-teaming five core models showed compliance with adversarial instructions hidden in case facts (73.3%-96.4%) far exceeded sensitivity to authority substitution, across all model rankings. The findings indicate that naming legal authorities is a poor proxy for actual reliance, with implications for generative legal explanation in compliance and audit contexts.

Paper Overview

Field: NLP Authors: Saisab Sadhu, Shreeyans Arora, Pratinav Seth Published: 2026-10-08 arXiv: 2610.12361

Summary

Large language models increasingly justify legal decisions by naming the statute or precedent behind a verdict, and this is treated as evidence that the decision actually follows from that authority. This paper tests the assumption directly: holding case facts fixed, the authors substitute the named legal authority with an unrelated one and decode the model's evolving verdict from its hidden states.

Key Findings

  • Across seven open-weight models (8B-70B) and four benchmarks spanning judicial and contractual reasoning:
  • When explicitly required to justify a verdict by naming the governing authority, models name the correct one in 66.7%-100% of generations.
  • But verdicts changing when the authority is substituted is far less consistent:
  • CaseHOLD: 0.0%-21.7%
  • ECHR and SCOTUS: 30.0%-76.7%
  • ContractNLI: 43.3%-50.0%
  • Neither model scale nor a purpose-built legal-reasoning model (the best-effort LoRA reproduction) closed this gap.
  • Red-team evaluation of five core models found that compliance with adversarial instructions hidden in case facts (73.3%-96.4%) far exceeded verdict sensitivity to authority substitution, and this held across every model ranking.

Implications

Naming a legal authority is a poor proxy for how much a verdict actually relies on it — and the same verdicts are separately vulnerable to adversarial manipulation. The results were reproducible across a battery of controls excluding prompt-wording noise and confounded sampling, and directly bear on the use of generative legal explanation as a compliance or audit artifact.

--- *Auto-collected on 2026-10-12*

Tags

#llm#legal-reasoning#nlp#arxiv#chain-of-thought#adversarial-robustness#interpretability#benchmark

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