On the night of November 5, 2025, in a top-floor private room of Taipei's Grand Hyatt Hotel, the atmosphere was so quiet you could almost hear heartbeats. No recordings, no phones—just 12 people at the peak of the global tech pyramid: giants from TSMC, Foxconn, and Quanta, along with top US venture capitalists. This dinner was meant to be strictly "off the record." But what NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang said next was destined to ignite a media storm across the Pacific.
The dinner opened without pleasantries. Huang dropped a bombshell: "If you ask me who will win the generative AI race over the next 5-10 years—China will win. It's that simple."
This assertion was not a passing remark. Behind it lay rigorous reasoning built on three core pillars, each targeting a weak point in current US strategy.
Pillar 1: Unmatched Scale — A "Million-Strong Army" vs. "Silicon Valley Guerrillas"
Huang first painted a breathtaking picture of human resources. "They have 1 million people working on this around the clock. One million! Not 100,000—one million." He stressed the number to make sure it was seared into everyone's mind. Then he turned to his home turf: "Do you know how many people in all of Silicon Valley work full-time on large models? At most 20,000, and that's in a good market."
This is not just a numbers comparison but a fundamental strategic imbalance. China's AI development resembles a heavy army with unlimited personnel reserves, waging an all-weather, uninterrupted saturation campaign with national resources. Silicon Valley, despite its elite talent, is more like a small special forces unit relying on inspiration and efficiency. In foundation models—a field demanding massive investment and continuous iteration—this crushing scale advantage alone forms a nearly insurmountable barrier.
Pillar 2: The "Backfire Effect" of Sanctions — The More You Push, the Harder They Fight
Huang's observations on US sanctions completely overturned conventional wisdom. Speaking almost like describing a law of physics: "And they won't give up. The more you sanction them, the harder they work. You simply can't stop them. The more you block, the more energized they get."
This reveals a deep psychological and social dynamic. External blockades, far from being obstacles, become a powerful internal unifying force. Sanctions are like a hand pressing down on a spring—the harder you press, the stronger the recoil energy it stores. For a nation with a resilient historical memory and strong collectivist spirit, external pressure often converts into internal resolve and fighting spirit. Every sanction, in effect, reinforces the legitimacy and urgency of indigenous R&D, forging the entire tech sector into unyielding steel.
Pillar 3: A Short-Sighted Strategic "Gift" — A Sputnik Moment "On Steroids"
The sharpest satire was reserved for US export control policy itself. "These export controls? The dumbest thing we've ever done," Huang criticized mercilessly. "You've just given them the best national mobilization mission in 50 years. It's like a Sputnik moment on steroids."
The metaphor is brilliant. The "Sputnik moment" refers to the Soviet Union's 1957 satellite launch, which shocked America and gave rise to NASA and the space race—a rallying call that awakened national crisis awareness and unified national strength. Huang believes the US chip ban has inadvertently replicated this historic moment for China—supercharged. It ended all internal debates about technology paths in China, providing an exceptionally clear, unquestionable national goal.
From this, his assessment of Huawei follows naturally: "Don't underestimate Huawei. Their Ascend 910C is already only 8-12% slower than the H100 on most workloads—and they can now make 200,000 units a month." While the US still argues over CFIUS terms, the competitor's production capacity is surging like a tide.
Ultimately, Huang's logic chain converged into a cold prediction: "Washington thinks they're stopping China. They're not stopping China—they're accelerating China. By 2027, China will have more AI compute than the rest of the world combined. Remember my words."
At the end of the dinner, he summed up the conversation with brutal candor: "So go ahead and keep sanctioning if you want. Just understand: you're handing them the trophy with your own hands."
After that night, the news inevitably leaked to the Financial Times and was rapidly cross-verified by leading global media. NVIDIA built a wall of silence with "no comment," while Jensen Huang himself canceled all scheduled media interviews.
But every word he spoke that night in that private room has already constructed a complete, self-consistent, and deeply cautionary vision of the future. In that vision, the AI crown was not seized by an opponent—it was handed over by the reigning king, lost in strategic delusion.